tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-81336072389942141712024-03-13T06:19:46.188-07:00Latest political newsLatest Political News and Top Politics Headlinesirbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comBlogger193125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-60562382769735598782012-01-09T02:49:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.902-08:00S&P 500 Dividends: The Futures Flatline... Again<p>The stock market's forward looking economic prediction for the next six to nine months of 2012, in one picture:<br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6Ms6R_Rge3s/Twm7KKT1ycI/AAAAAAAAE0U/A5PRzSTlLJA/s1600/SP500-expected-future-tydps-9-jan-2012.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 435px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6Ms6R_Rge3s/Twm7KKT1ycI/AAAAAAAAE0U/A5PRzSTlLJA/s1600/SP500-expected-future-tydps-9-jan-2012.png" border="0" alt="Expected Future Trailing Year Dividends per Share for the S&P 500, as of 9 January 2012" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695288987027360194" /></a><br /><br /><h4>Commentary from today's picture: </h4><br /><br /><p>Between 9 December 2011 and 9 January 2011, the <a href="http://indexarb.com/dividendAnalysis.html" target="_blank">expected future</a> for S&P 500 dividend payments have essentially "<a href="http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/flatline" target="_blank">flatlined</a>". This repeats the year-end pattern we saw in 2010. </p><br /><br /><p>In early 2011, the U.S. economy slowed down into what we describe as a "<a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/08/us-enters-into-microrecession.html" target="_blank">microrecession</a>", characterized by very low economic growth rates, which lasted through 2011Q3. </p><br /><br /><p>The U.S. didn't leave those economic doldrums until the fourth quarter of 2011. </p><br /><br /><p>Is this a signal that forward looking investors believe the U.S. economy is about to repeat that performance? </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-60602809829218223052012-01-06T03:15:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.903-08:00Your Paycheck in 2012<p>How much money will you really take home from your paycheck in 2012? </p><br /><br /><p>To find out, we've created the tool below so you can run the numbers that matter the most for you! In addition to finding out how much money Uncle Sam will be taking straight out of your paycheck for income tax withholding and FICA (which we've broken down into your Social Security and Medicare tax components), our tool will also work in your 401(k) or 403(b) retirement plan contributions, as well as the effect of any flexible spending account arrangements you may have set up through your employer. </p><br /><br /><p>Better yet, our tool will also let you see how you take home pay might change if you earn a raise during the year! </p><br /><br /><p>Just enter the indicated data into our tool, and we'll run your numbers for 2012, or at least your numbers through February 2012, depending upon what happens with that temporary Social Security payroll tax cut. If and when that changes, we'll post a new version of the tool! </p><br /><br /><div STYLE="display: block; margin: 10px; padding: 4px; width: 620px;"><br /><FORM><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=4 STYLE="border: 1px solid #333333; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /><TR style="background: #6C4F8F; color: #FFFFFF; font-weight: bold; font-size: larger;"><br /> <TH COLSPAN=3 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">Your Paycheck and Tax Withholding Data</TH><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background: #917BAB; color: #000000; font-weight: bold;"><br /> <TH style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; width: 25%;">Category</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;">Input Data</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle;">Values</TH><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH ROWSPAN=2 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC; width: 25%;">Basic Pay Data</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Current Annual Pay </TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="AP0" VALUE="26487.00" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background: #D3CADD;"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Pay Period</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><SELECT NAME="PP1"><br /> <OPTION>Daily<br /> <OPTION>Weekly<br /> <OPTION SELECTED>Biweekly<br /> <OPTION>Semimonthly<br /> <OPTION>Monthly<br /> <OPTION>Quarterly<br /> <OPTION>Semiannually<br /> <OPTION>Annually<br /> </SELECT><br /> </TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH ROWSPAN=2 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC; width: 25%;">Federal Withholding Data</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Filing Status</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><SELECT NAME="FS2"><br /> <OPTION VALUE="0" SELECTED>Single<br /> <OPTION VALUE="1">Married<br /> </SELECT><br /> </TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background: #D3CADD;"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Number of Withholding Allowances</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><SELECT NAME="WA3"><br /> <OPTION SELECTED>0<br /> <OPTION>1<br /> <OPTION>2<br /> <OPTION>3<br /> <OPTION>4<br /> <OPTION>5<br /> <OPTION>6<br /> <OPTION>7<br /> <OPTION>8<br /> <OPTION>9<br /> <OPTION>10<br /> <OPTION>11<br /> <OPTION>12<br /> <OPTION>13<br /> <OPTION>14<br /> <OPTION>15<br /> <OPTION>16<br /> </SELECT><br /> </TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH ROWSPAN=2 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC; width: 25%;">401(k) or 403(b) Contributions</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Pre-Tax Contributions (%)</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=6 NAME="PT4" VALUE="0.0" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background: #D3CADD;"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">After Tax Contributions (%)</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=6 NAME="AT5" VALUE="0.0" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH ROWSPAN=2 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC; width: 25%;">Flexible Spending Account Annual Contribution Data</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Health Care Spending Account</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=6 NAME="HCSA6" VALUE="0.00" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background: #D3CADD;"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Dependent Care Spending Account</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=6 NAME="DCSA7" VALUE="0.00" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR CLASS=wRow><br /> <TH style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC; width: 25%;">What if You Had a Raise?</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Desired Raise (%)</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=6 NAME="DR8" VALUE="0.0" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /></TABLE><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-align: center;"><br /> <INPUT TYPE=button VALUE="Calculate" ONCLICK="USWithhold2012(this.form)"><br /> <INPUT TYPE=reset><br /></p><br /><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=4 STYLE="border: 1px solid #333333; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /><TR style="background: #355F48; color: #FFFFFF; font-weight: bold; font-size: larger;"><br /> <TH COLSPAN=3 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">Your Paycheck Data</TH><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background: #7BAB91; color: #000000; font-weight: bold;"><br /> <TH style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; width: 25%;">Category</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;">Calculated Results</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle;">Values</TH><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #FFFFFF"><br /> <TH ROWSPAN=2 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC; width: 25%;">Basic Income Data</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Proposed Annual Salary (Including Raise!)</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="SAL" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #B9D2C4"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Typical Paycheck Amount </TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="PAY" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TH><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #FFFFFF" ROWSPAN=3><br /> <TH ROWSPAN=3 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC; width: 25%;">Federal Tax Withholding Amounts</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">U.S. Federal Income Taxes </TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="FIT" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #B9D2C4"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">U.S. Social Security Taxes </TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="SST" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #FFFFFF"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">U.S. Medicare Taxes </TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="MCT" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #FFFFFF"><br /> <TH ROWSPAN=3 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC; width: 25%;">401(k) or 403(b) Contributions</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #B9D2C4; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Pre-Tax Contributions </TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #B9D2C4; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="PTC" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #FFFFFF"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">After-Tax Contributions </TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="ATC" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #B9D2C4"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Total Contributions </TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="T401k" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #FFFFFF"><br /> <TH ROWSPAN=2 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC; width: 25%;">Flexible Spending Account Contributions</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Health Care Spending Account </TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="HSA" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #B9D2C4"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Dependent Care Spending Account </TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="DSA" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #FFFFFF"><br /> <TH style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC; width: 25%;">Take Home Pay Estimate</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Net Paycheck Amount </TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="NET" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /></TABLE><br /></div><br /><br /><p>That's all well and good, but how does your paycheck compare to what it would have looked like in 2010, the last year before the Social Security payroll tax cut? And for that matter, when both <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2012/01/meet-rich-of-2012.html" target="_blank">Single</a> and <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2012/01/meet-married-rich-of-2012.html" target="_blank">Married</a> tax filers had lower federal income tax withholding rates in place as well? Did you really get the benefit of that full 2.0% reduction of your income more in your pocket? Our results table below shows how you take-home pay would have been.... </p><br /><br /><div STYLE="display: block; margin: 10px; padding: 4px; width: 620px;"><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=4 STYLE="border: 1px solid #333333; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /><TR style="background: #3B3A4A; color: #FFFFFF; font-weight: bold; font-size: larger;"><br /> <TH COLSPAN=3 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;">Compared to 2010</TH><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background: #768597; color: #000000; font-weight: bold;"><br /> <TH style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; width: 25%;">Category</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle;">Calculated Results</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle;">Values</TH><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #FFFFFF"><br /> <TH ROWSPAN=4 style="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC; width: 25%;">Major Changes</TH><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Payroll Tax Cut "Savings" per Paycheck (*)</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="DBT" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #FFFFFF"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Change in Income Taxes Withheld per Paycheck</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="DIT" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #FFFFFF"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Net Gain (+) or Loss (-) to You per Paycheck</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="DIF" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /><TR style="background-color: #FFFFFF"><br /> <TH style="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;">Your Personal "Stimulus" (Percentage of Income)</TH><br /> <TD style="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-color: #CCCCCC;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="STIM" STYLE="text-align: right;"></TD><br /></TR><br /></TABLE><br /><br /><p STYLE="font-size: smaller;">(*) As part of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Relief,_Unemployment_Insurance_Reauthorization,_and_Job_Creation_Act_of_2010" target="_blank">Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010</a>, the taxes collected from all Americans with wage or salary income to support Social Security was reduced by 2.0%, from 6.2% to 4.2%. This change only affects what individuals see on their paychecks, as the employers' portion of these taxes will remain at 6.2% of their employees' wage or salary incomes.</p> <p STYLE="font-size: smaller;">To make up any resulting shortfall in the Social Security tax collections used to pay benefits to today's Social Security recipients, the U.S. Treasury will increase its borrowing to cover the cost of providing those benefits at their current level. The Social Security payroll tax cut was extended for most wage and salary earners through February 2012 by the <a href="http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=251650,00.html" target="_blank">Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011</a>. </p><br /></FORM><br /></div><br /><br /><p>As for why President Obama's promise of a 2.0% payroll tax cut really doesn't add up to 2.0% of your salary or wage income, see the charts <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2012/01/meet-rich-of-2012.html" target="_blank">here</a> (if you file as Single) and <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2012/01/meet-married-rich-of-2012.html" target="_blank">here</a> (if you file as Married), for the explanation of those tax withholding dynamics.... </p> <br /><br /><p>And remember, one of the consequences of not putting that extra 2.0% of your paycheck into Social Security is that the program will run more deeply <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2011/02/democrats-deny-social-securitys-red-ink/" target="_blank">in the red</a>, which will force the government to have to borrow more money just to pay benefits to today's Social Security recipients. </p> <br /><br /><p>Our advice: if you'd like to put Social Security on a more sound footing, and keep your take-home pay from being reduced by 2.0% when the temporary Social Security payroll tax cut is set to expire in February 2012, have your U.S. Representative or Senators reduce all the other income tax rates (and withholding tax rates) by 2.0% (or more). As far as President Obama is concerned, it will make no difference to how much money the federal government will borrow on his watch. </p><br /><br /><h3>Previously on Political Calculations</h3><br /><br /><p>We've been in the business of calculating people's paychecks (not including state income tax withholding) since 2005! </p><br /><br /><ul><br /><li><a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2005/01/your-2005-paycheck.html" target="_blank">Your 2005 Paycheck</a></li><br /><li><a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2006/01/your-2006-paycheck.html" target="_blank">Your 2006 Paycheck</a></li><br /><li><a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2007/01/your-2007-paycheck.html" target="_blank">Your 2007 Paycheck</a></li><br /><li><a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2008/01/your-2008-paycheck.html" target="_blank">Your 2008 Paycheck</a></li><br /><li><a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2009/01/your-2009-paycheck.html" target="_blank">Your 2009 Paycheck</a></li><br /><li><a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2010/01/your-paycheck-in-2010.html" target="_blank">Your Paycheck in 2010</a></li><br /><li><a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/01/your-paycheck-in-2011.html" target="_blank">Your Paycheck in 2011</a></li><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>But before we forget, your employer pays a lot more to keep you on the payroll than just your paycheck! The tool below shows how much it costs to employ you in 2011-12! </p><br /><br /><ul><br /><li><a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/10/how-much-does-it-cost-to-employ-you.html" target="_blank">How Much Does It Really Cost to Employ You? (2011-12 Edition)</a></li><br /></ul>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-16571599313600163972012-01-05T02:56:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.903-08:00Meet the Married Rich of 2012!<p>We're following up our look at the payroll and income tax withholding <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2012/01/meet-rich-of-2012.html" target="_blank">plight</a> of Single tax filers today with a look at the plight of those who have their income taxes withheld at the IRS' initial 2012 married tax rates: </p><br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K8IP1_9ouRo/TwTLLcANDyI/AAAAAAAAE0I/BLlC52k4hcw/s1600/us-federal-income-tax-withholding-rates-married-filers-2010-vs-2012.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 435px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K8IP1_9ouRo/TwTLLcANDyI/AAAAAAAAE0I/BLlC52k4hcw/s1600/us-federal-income-tax-withholding-rates-married-filers-2010-vs-2012.png" border="0" alt="Federal Income Tax Withholding Rates for Married Filers, 2010 vs 2012" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693899226259197730" /></a><br /><br /><p>Once again, we're comparing the <a href="http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/n1036.pdf" target="_blank">initial tax withholding rates for 2012</a> against those that <a href="http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-prior/n1036--2009.pdf" target="_blank">applied in 2010</a>, the last year before the employee's portion of the Social Security FICA payroll taxes of 6.2% of the employee's income was "temporarily" reduced to 4.2%. </p><br /><br /><p>What we find is that the benefits of extending the Social Security payroll tax cut into 2012 is limited to roughly 51% of those who might choose the Married filing status for their federal tax withholding, namely those whose incomes might fall between $7,900 and $78,800. </p><br /><br /><p>For all practical purposes, no individual who has their taxes withheld under the Married filing status whose income equals or exceeds $78,800 can expect to see any meaningful increase in their take-home pay with respect to what they might have done under the tax withholding rules of 2010. The increase in the income tax withholding rates will offset the reduction in they might otherwise see from the payroll tax cut. </p><br /><br /><p>In the chart above, we've used two different shading levels to indicate the range of incomes for which the 2.0% income surtax incorporated into the December 2011 temporary payroll tax cut extension might apply. </p><br /><br /><p>The lighter gray zone indicates the incomes where a married individual's income may be affected by the surtax while the darker gray zone indicates the incomes where a married couple will definitely be exposed to the surtax (since married filers combine the incomes of two people, it's possible for their combined income to be above the $110,100 level, yet still not be individually subject to the new 2.0% surtax.) </p><br /><br /><p>All in all, we're not sure it's worth forcing Social Security to <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2011/02/democrats-deny-social-securitys-red-ink/" target="_blank">run more deeply in the red</a> for the sake putting a smidgen more take-home money into just 51-53% of American income earners' paychecks. It would benefit way more people, and put way more disposable income into the economy, if the federal government would let the temporary Social Security payroll tax cut expire and cut regular income and withholding tax rates across the board by 2-3% instead. </p><br /><br /><p>But if nothing else, at least we now know that President Obama's definition of who is "rich" really starts at $37,500 for single tax filers and $78,800 for married tax filers. </p><br /><br /><h3>References</h3><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Internal Revenue Service. Payroll Tax Cut Temporarily Extended into 2012. <a href="http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=251650,00.html" target="_blank">IRS-2011-124</a>. 23 December 2011. </p> <br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Internal Revenue Service. <a href="http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-prior/n1036--2011.pdf" target="_blank">Early Release Copies of the 2010 Percentage Method Tables for Income Withholding</a>. Notice 1036. Released December 2011. </p> <br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Internal Revenue Service. <a href="http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-prior/n1036--2009.pdf" target="_blank">Early Release Copies of the 2010 Percentage Method Withholding and Advance Earned Income Credit Payment Tables</a>. Notice 1036. Released November 2009. </p><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Internal Revenue Service - Statistics of Income Division. 2009 Individual Complete Report (Publication 1304), Table 1.2 - All Returns: Adjusted Gross Income, Exemptions, Deductions, and Tax Items: Size of Adjusted Gross Income and Marital Status. [<a href="http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/09in12ms.xls" target="_blank">Excel Spreadsheet</a>]. Accessed 2 January 2012. </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-3165981084280126822012-01-04T03:15:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.903-08:00Meet the Rich of 2012<p>Two days before Christmas 2011, the U.S. Congress acted to pass a temporary extension of the Social Security payroll tax cut that had originally been passed a year earlier, and which had been set to expire at the end of 2011. To celebrate the occasion, the White House <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/12/23/president-obama-extending-payroll-tax-cut-boost-we-need-right-now" target="_blank">issued the following statement</a> describing who would benefit from extending the Social Security payroll tax cut: </p><br /><br /><blockquote STYLE="border-color: #940022; background-color: #E5E1D9; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 8px; border-style: dotted dotted dotted solid; padding: 0em 1em;"><br /><p>President Obama today signed into law a two month extension of the payroll tax cut, which means that 160 million American workers will not see their paychecks shrink starting Jan 1, 2012. The President thanked Congress for ending the stalemate and <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/12/23/remarks-president" target="_blank">urged them to keep working</a> to reach an agreement that extends this tax cut as well as unemployment insurance through all of 2012, saying it is the right thing to do for American families and for the economy, and called it "a boost that we very much need right now."</p><br /></blockquote><br /><br /><p>While technically true, we find that the White House's statement is misleading. </p><br /><br /><p>The part that's true is that had the Social Security payroll tax cut that had originally passed into law as part of the <a href="http://tax.cchgroup.com/downloads/files/pdfs/legislation/bush-taxcuts.pdf" target="_blank">Job Creation Act of 2010</a>, as many as 160 million individuals would indeed have seen their paychecks shrink as the Social Security payroll tax would have risen back to the level it was in 2010. </p><br /><br /><p>The only problem is that just over half of those wage and salary earning individuals ever saw any benefit from the Social Security payroll tax cut on their paychecks in the first place! </p><br /><br /><p>We'll illustrate why that was the case with the following chart, which presents the withholding income tax rates for individuals having money withheld at the "Single" tax filing status rates throughout the year for both 2010 and 2012. </p><br /><br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RA-vSKRJOpI/TwNv8JxklwI/AAAAAAAAEz8/ISXFIkhlDvE/s1600/us-federal-income-tax-withholding-rates-single-filers-2010-vs-2012.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 435px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RA-vSKRJOpI/TwNv8JxklwI/AAAAAAAAEz8/ISXFIkhlDvE/s1600/us-federal-income-tax-withholding-rates-single-filers-2010-vs-2012.png" border="0" alt="U.S. Federal Income Tax Withholding Rates for Single Filers, 2010 vs 2012" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693517433133111042" /></a> <br /><br /><p>The 2012 withholding tax rates shown in the chart above are nearly identical to those for 2011 - the only difference is that the incomes at which the withholding tax rates apply for 2012 have been adjusted upward slightly from 2011's levels to account for the effect of inflation over the past year. </p><br /><br /><p>What we find is that for all practical purposes, the only individuals who really benefitted from the payroll tax cut of 2010 were individuals with incomes between $6,050 and $37,500. </p><br /><br /><p>Assuming that the income distribution given by the IRS' <a href="http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/09in12ms.xls" target="_blank">adjusted gross income data</a> for single tax filers from 2009 is representative of today's single tax filers, we estimate that roughly 53% of the wage and salary earners who have their taxes withheld at the Single filing status will see any significant benefit on their paychecks from the extension of the Social Security payroll tax cut. At least, as compared to what their paychecks would have looked like for earning the identical incomes in 2010, before the temporary Social Security payroll tax cut was enacted. </p><br /><br /><p>Much of the same math applied for 2011, which is a major reason why there was so little economic "stimulus" from the payroll tax cut - instead of having more money to take home, a very large percentage of individuals took home less money after all tax withholding from their paychecks than they would have in 2010. </p><br /><br /><p>And for all practical purposes in 2012, almost all individuals with incomes above $37,500 will see the federal government's withholding and payroll taxes claim a larger share of their paychecks than they would have seen in 2010. With almost exactly the same economic benefit from the "stimulative" effect desired by President Obama. </p><br /><br /><p>But at least now the pain of higher federal taxes taking more money out of every paycheck is being spread among all those single tax filers with incomes above $37,500. </p><br /><br /><p>Meet the rich of 2012! </p><br /><br /><h3>References</h3><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Internal Revenue Service. Payroll Tax Cut Temporarily Extended into 2012. <a href="http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=251650,00.html" target="_blank">IRS-2011-124</a>. 23 December 2011. </p> <br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Internal Revenue Service - Statistics of Income Division. 2009 Individual Complete Report (Publication 1304), Table 1.2 - All Returns: Adjusted Gross Income, Exemptions, Deductions, and Tax Items: Size of Adjusted Gross Income and Marital Status. [<a href="http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/09in12ms.xls" target="_blank">Excel Spreadsheet</a>]. Accessed 2 January 2012. </p><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">White House. <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/12/23/president-obama-extending-payroll-tax-cut-boost-we-need-right-now" target="_blank">President Obama: Extending Payroll Tax Cut Is a "Boost We Need Right Now"</a>. 23 December 2011. </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-43605998736838586492012-01-03T02:51:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.903-08:00Median Adjusted Gross Incomes by Tax Filling Status<p>Sometimes, as we work on our various projects, we stumble across data that's kind of interesting in and of itself. </p><br /><br /><p>To that end, today's example of that would appear to provide <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/10/real-story-behind-rising-us-income.html" target="_blank">more evidence</a> that social factors have more to do with the perceived rise in income inequality in the United States over time than do economic factors: </p><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ho3n6cYFSmc/Tv9ocBlM9YI/AAAAAAAAEzw/Tnu6L3dZB40/s1600/median-agi-by-2009-tax-filing-status.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 435px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ho3n6cYFSmc/Tv9ocBlM9YI/AAAAAAAAEzw/Tnu6L3dZB40/s1600/median-agi-by-2009-tax-filing-status.png" border="0" alt="Median Adjusted Gross Incomes by 2009 Tax Filing Status" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5692383284689696130" /></a><br /><br /><p>In the chart above, we've presented the median adjusted gross incomes we've estimated for 2009's income tax filers according to their tax filing status. The number in parentheses below each column in the chart indicates the number of tax returns filed in 2009 for each group. </p><br /><br /><p>It would seem that just marital status has a lot to do with the observed differences between the various kinds of income tax filers. </p><br /><br /><h3>Data Source </h3><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Internal Revenue Service Statistics of Income Division. 2009 Individual Complete Report (Publication 1304), Table 1.2. [<a href="http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/09in12ms.xls" target="_blank">Excel Spreadsheet</a>]. Accessed 2 January 2012. </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-50791422820815001262012-01-02T03:34:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.903-08:00Solving the Biggest Civil Rights Crisis of 2012<p>Welcome to 2012! We're kicking off the new year by solving the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204552304577116951684553704.html" target="_blank">biggest civil rights crisis</a> in America today, at least according to the United States Department of Justice: the racial disparity in the percentage of individuals without current photo identification needed for voting in South Carolina! </p><br /><br /><p>The editorialists of the <cite>Wall Street Journal</cite> were a bit taken aback by the apparent priorities of the U.S. DOJ: </p><br /><br /><blockquote STYLE="border-color: #940022; background-color: #E5E1D9; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 8px; border-style: dotted dotted dotted solid; padding: 0em 1em;"><br /><p>Eric Holder must be amazed that President Obama was elected and he could become Attorney General. That's a fair inference after the Attorney General last Friday blocked South Carolina's voter ID law on grounds that it would hurt minorities. What a political abuse of law. </p><br /><br /><p>In a letter to South Carolina's government, Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Thomas Perez called the state law—which would require voters to present one of five forms of photo ID at the polls—a violation of Section 5 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Overall, he noted, 8.4% of the state's registered white voters lack current photo ID, compared to 10% of nonwhite voters. </p><br /><br /><p>This is the yawning chasm the Justice Department is now using to justify the unprecedented federal intrusion into state election law, and the first denial of a "pre-clearance" Voting Rights request since 1994. </p><br /></blockquote><br /><br /><p>According to the 2010 U.S. Census, 66.2% of South Carolina's 4,625,364 entire population were racially classified as being "White alone", while 27.9% were racially classified as being "Black or African American alone", who make up the lion's share of the state's "non-white" population. We will assume these percentages hold for the state's voting age population, which would put the number of individuals Age 18 or older at 3,544,890. </p><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tfgXbStpmEE/Tv9bh64UHVI/AAAAAAAAEzk/fpR6E6B2S1w/s1600/US-Census-2010-South-Carolina.PNG"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 258px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tfgXbStpmEE/Tv9bh64UHVI/AAAAAAAAEzk/fpR6E6B2S1w/s400/US-Census-2010-South-Carolina.PNG" border="0" alt="2010 U.S. Census - South Carolina population and racial demographics" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5692369092318862674" /></a><br /><br /><p>Simple multiplication then tells us that there are approximately 2,346,717 "whites" and 989,024 "blacks" of <a href="http://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxvi" target="_blank">voting age</a> in South Carolina. </p><br /><br /><p>Using Assistant Attorney General Thomas Perez' figures, we can now estimate the number of each racial subset of South Carolina's voting population that he claims lacks current photo identification. For whites, that works out to be 201,818 individuals, while for blacks, the number estimated to not have current photo identification is 98,902, bringing the combined total of current photo-ID-less potential voters to 300,720. </p><br /><br /><p>These figures assume that 100% of the state's voting age population is registered to vote. In reality, an <a href="http://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/p20-562.pdf" target="_blank">estimated 65.6%</a> of South Carolina's voting age population actually voted in the 2008 election, which suggests that the actual number of registered voters in the state who might be affected by not having a current photo ID will be nearly one-third smaller than our figures suggest. We'll assume the 100% figure for our remaining calculations however, because they would represent a worst-case scenario. </p><br /><br /><p>Using those larger numbers then, all it would take to make the percentage of blacks without current photo IDs be equal to the percentage of whites without current photo IDs to achieve Assistant Attorney General Thomas Perez' vision of perfect racial equality is for 13,846 blacks to take the simple action of renewing the photo IDs they have previously been issued by the state of South Carolina, and which have since expired. </p><br /><br /><p>After all, common sense tells us that individuals who have previously been able to obtain valid state-issued photo identification should have a pretty simple time doing so again. Apparently, the state's Department of Motor Vehicles will even <a href="http://www2.wjbf.com/news/2011/sep/07/sc-dmv-scrambling-provide-rides-disabled-ar-2375669/" target="_blank">pick you up</a> and drive you to their office for the sake of getting you a valid and current photo ID to support your desire to vote in the last days to register ahead of an election! </p><br /><br /><p>Going back to the numbers, South Carolina's Department of Elections reports that 240,000 state voters lacked current ID cards as of October 2011. The state's Department of Motor Vehicles has indicated that 200,000 of those represent a combination of individuals whose existing photo IDs have expired (most often), or who have moved to other states, or who have passed away. </p><br /><br /><p>For those who haven't moved to other states or died, perhaps the easiest solution for obtaining a current photo ID would be to <a href="http://www.scdmvonline.com/dmvnew/default.aspx?n=driver_license_renewals" target="_blank">follow the directions</a> provided by South Carolina's Department of Motor Vehicles for renewing their expired driver's license to make them current. </p><br /><br /><p>And to help "<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0300122233/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=politicalcalc-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0300122233">nudge</a>" them in the right direction, we would recommend that Assistant Attorney General Thomas Perez take steps to prevent these particular individuals from doing things like boarding aircraft, buying alcohol, tobacco or firearms, depositing a check at a bank, applying for a loan, or <a href="http://biggovernment.com/mikeflynn/2011/12/13/union-disenfranchises-workers-in-contract-vote/" target="_blank">voting in a union election</a>, to name <a href="https://www.google.com/webhp?hl=en&tab=ww&authuser=0#hl=en&cp=35&gs_id=69&xhr=t&q=%22must+present+photo+identification%22&tok=nrWN75FtdyiYxky6zBcmhA&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&authuser=0&site=webhp&source=hp&pbx=1&oq=%22must+present+photo+identification%22&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_sm=&gs_upl=&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&fp=4b3c420078196b39&biw=1111&bih=976" target="_blank">just a few ways</a> the government might use its power to compel such people to eliminate the specific racial disparity of which he is so concerned. </p><br /><br /><p>At least then, perhaps Assistant Attorney General Thomas Perez will feel like he is achieving something meaningful in his career! </p><br /><br /><h3>Data Sources and References</h3><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Census Bureau. <a href="http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/" target="_blank">2010 Census Data</a>. Accessed 2 January 2012. </p><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">File, Thom and Crissey, Sarah. <a href="http://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/p20-562.pdf" target="_blank">Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2008</a>. Current Population Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. May 2010. </p><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Howden, Lindsay M. and Meyer, Julie A. <a href="http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf" target="_blank">Age and Sex Composition: 2010</a>. 2010 Census Briefs. May 2011. </p><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Wall Street Journal. <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203391104577125532355717866.html" target="_blank">Holder's Racial Politics</a>. 30 December 2011. </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-17254365611920801022012-01-01T11:05:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.904-08:00Best Albums of 2011It may have been a bad movie year, but the music industry did not disappoint. I actually had a hard time narrowing down this list to fifteen. There are certainly others that were in the running, others that didn't make the list because of one track or another--it was that hard. Here it is:<br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8cEZbMF0_yg/TwCraIVG2LI/AAAAAAAABc0/Zf3RGbA5NDs/s1600/2011.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 385px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8cEZbMF0_yg/TwCraIVG2LI/AAAAAAAABc0/Zf3RGbA5NDs/s400/2011.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5692738394397268146" /></a><ol><li>Tom Waits: Bad As Me</li><li>Bon Iver: Bon Iver</li><li>Wilco: The Whole Love</li><li>Black Keys: El Camino</li><li>The Civil Wars: Barton Hollow</li><li>Trampled by Turtles: Palomino</li><li>The Roots: Undun</li><li>Glenn Campbell: Ghost on the Canvas</li><li>Foo Fighters: Wasting Light</li><li>HARDTOBREATHE: The Reckoning</li><li>Bush: Sea of Memories</li><li>Miranda Lambert: Four the Record</li><li>Lucinda Williams: Blessed</li><li>Matt Nathanson: Modern Love</li><li>Christina Perri: Lovestrong</li></ol>Narrowing it down to fifteen may have been difficult, but picking the number one album of 2011 was incredibly easy. After listening to one track of Tom Waits' seventeenth studio album, I was sold. If you haven't listened to it, go. Now! It's that good.<div><br /></div><div>It was a great year for upstarts (Christina Perri and The Civil Wars) and artists that have been around for what seems like ages (Lucinda Williams, Tom Waits and the incomparable Glenn Campbell). And that I can only think of two disappointments (return of the Red Hot Chili Peppers and Ryan Adams' Ashes & Fire) is saying something. The music industry better get cracking because 2011 is going to be hard to beat.<br /><br /></div>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-15397171875014890982011-12-31T17:02:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.904-08:00Smorgasbord Saturday (New Year's Edition)<ul><li>"<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/opinion/sunday/bill-mahers-new-rules-for-the-new-year.html?ref=opinion">New Rules for the New Year</a>"/Bill Maher, <i>New York Times</i></li><li>"<a href="http://www.ridenbaugh.com/index.php/2011/12/28/alcohol-and-the-idaho-legislator/">Alcohol and the Idaho legislator</a>"/Randy Stapilus, Ridenbaugh Press</li><li>"<a href="http://steunenberg.blogspot.com/2011/12/12301905-today-in-history.html">12/30/1905 - Today In History</a>"/John T. Richards, Idaho Meanderings</li><li>"<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-brainpower-revolution/2011/12/23/gIQAhZETJP_story.html">A brainpower revolution</a>"/Eugene Robinson, <i>Washington Post</i></li><li>"<a href="http://motherjones.com/mojo/2011/12/rick-perry-abortion-stance-gets-even-more-extreme">Perry's Abortion Stance Gets Even More Extreme</a>"/Kate Sheppard, <i>Mother Jones</i></li><li>"<a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/.m/jacketcopy/2011/12/25-literary-resolutions-for-2012.html?p=4&locale=en_US">25 Literary resolutions for 2012. What's yours?</a>"/Jacket Copy (via <i>L.A. Times</i>)</li><li>"<a href="http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111218&content_id=26192568&vkey=news_sea&c_id=sea">2011: A Year of Transitions</a>"/Greg Johns, MLB.com</li><li>"<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/opinion/keynes-was-right.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss">Keynes Was Right</a>"/Paul Krugman, <i>New York Times</i></li><li>"<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2011/12/why-is-nepal-cracking-down-on-tibetan-refugees.html">Why Is Nepal Cracking Down On Tibetan Refugees?</a>"/Jon Krakauer, <i>The New Yorker</i></li><li>"<a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/texas-rangers/post/_/id/4876794/pudge-would-welcome-return-to-rangers">Pudge would welcome return to Rangers</a>"/Texas Rangers Report, ESPNDallas.com</li><li>"<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/04/magazine/can-ambien-wake-minimally-conscious.html?_r=2&sq=waking%20chris&st=cse&scp=2&adxnnlx=1325197113-l7HiPZ2fN%20IULK%20g4E8kjg&pagewanted=all">A Drug That Wakes the Near Dead</a>"/Jeneen Interlandi, New York Times Magazine</li></ul><div><br /></div>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-37223963194068012162011-12-31T16:46:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.905-08:00The Cost of Executing MonstersThis week the Idaho Department of Correction <a href="http://www.idoc.idaho.gov/content/story/top_news/idoc_releases_cost_of_rhoades_execution">released</a> the amount the state's execution of Paul Ezra <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Rhoades</span> cost the state of Idaho. Not surprisingly for those who are familiar with the <a href="http://deathpenaltyinfo.org/costs-death-penalty#financialfacts">cost of carrying out the death penalty</a>, the cost was great. The exact cost <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">IDOC</span> released to the press was $53,411, not including the construction of the new execution chamber (F Block, as it is named).<div><br /></div><div>In an interestingly timed release, the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">IDOC</span> stated the following:</div><blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#666666;">BOISE, December 30, 2011 – The recent execution of Paul Ezra </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#666666;">Rhoades</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#666666;">, </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#666666;">IDOC</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#666666;"> #26864, cost the Idaho Department of Correction $53,411.</span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#666666;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#666666;">Of the total, $25,583 went to employee overtime and $27,828 went to operating costs [...]</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#666666;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#666666;">[...] Operating expenses include medical supplies, equipment rentals and meals. The total cost figure does not include salary and benefits paid to </span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#666666;">IDOC</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#666666;"> staff who would have been working regardless of whether or not there had been an execution. Only overtime costs that were accrued as a result of the event were included in the final tally.</span></div></blockquote><div><span><span></span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 17px; font-family:'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:13px;"><p style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.9em; "></p><p style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.9em; "></p></span></div></div><div><span><span>The press release went on to compare the cost of the state of Idaho's execution of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Rhoades</span> with that of the state of Oregon as they prepared for the execution of an inmate who was ultimately granted a reprieve when the governor of that state placed a <a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2011/11/gov_john_kitzhaber_oregon_deat.html">moratorium</a> on executions. The two states were separated by merely a few thousand dollars. The insertion of this information in the press release may only be a way for the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">IDOC</span> to explain to the general public that the cost is comparable to other states and other executions, but it seemed inappropriate to be announcing that we can kill a man in the name of our people for cheaper than another state can.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span>When the new execution chamber was revealed to the people of the state of Idaho prior to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Rhoades</span>' execution, we were told that the necessity presented itself when the state began to realize there would be several more executions in the coming years. Maybe that is so, unfortunately to those of us who would rather our state not take lives in our name, but it doesn't erase the cost. </span></span></div><div><span><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span>As long as we choose to execute the monsters among us, there will be a cost.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br /></span></span></div>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-5529476971717696952011-12-31T16:33:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.906-08:00The FinderIt's official, <span style="font-style:italic;">The Finder</span> has it's <a href="http://www.fox.com/the-finder/">own page</a> on the FOX website! And they've been running ads for the hour-long show that will premiere on January 12, 2012 at 9/8c. <div><br /></div><div>Check out this video for a preview of the show:</div><div><br /><iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/xzr8c2pV0H8?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe><br /><br /></div><div>If you're not a regular watcher of <span style="font-style:italic;">Bones</span>, you may have missed FOX introducing <span style="font-style:italic;">The Finder</span> (aka Walter Sherman). They're calling it a spin-off of <span style="font-style:italic;">Bones</span>, but the only connection I see is that both shows are based on a series of books and have the same creator. There isn't much of a connection between the two, other than the story line devised to introduce one show in the time slot of the other. <span style="font-style:italic;">The Finder</span> is based on two amazing books by Richard Greener. Called The Locator series, Greener wrote <i>The Knowland Retribution</i> and <i>The Lacey Confession</i> centered on the unique gifts of a military veteran who can find nearly anything or anyone--lost, missing or stolen. Not unusually, there are some differences between the books and the soon to premiere tv show (just as there are differences between the books by Kathy Reichs and the <i>Bones</i> show). Most notably, there are far less characters in the tv show than in the book, one major character specifically. Differences aside, it looks to be a very entertaining show. <div><br /></div><div>Given my track record of liking shows of late that are cancelled after a season or even less, I hope that <i>Bones</i> fans and fans of the Greener books will tune in and give this show a chance.</div></div><div><br /></div>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-43048431544400690352011-12-27T19:58:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.906-08:00Why Kim Jong-il is Not Really So Funny or So StrangeThe Kim is dead, long live the Kim. <br /><br />Kim Jong-il, The second Stalinist autocrat of the House of Kim in North Korea has passed away, and the third, Kim Jong-un, now takes his father's place. This has received a lot of coverage in the American media, with a slight sense of regret, being that the elder Kim had provided so much entertainment for Americans who loved to laugh at the odd, portly dictator with a love of Hollywood films and nuclear missiles. Having visited South Korea several times, I know the anguish Koreans feel about the Cold War division of their country into two opposing halves, and I have observed with sadness how each successive effort by the government and people of the South to reach out to the North has been rebuffed with the situation ending up where it began, with the North engaging in saber-rattling, missile-launching and other acts of symbolic or actual aggression to extort food and other aid out of South Korea and the USA in a kind of bizarre protection racket. How very weird, ridiculous and awful North Korea and its leaders are; how very far removed from us in wonderful, democratic America; or so we would like to believe.<br /><br />I have been reflecting on Korea and reaching a different kind of conclusion, one that is not especially cheerful or reassuring. In a number of ways, I see the USA becoming more and more like North Korea.<br /><br />Resemblance #1: Dedication to military power over all else. North Korea is as poor and economically dysfunctional as a country can be, but it still manages to have the fourth largest army in the world. Add to that the development of nuclear missiles, and you can see why military force is so important to North Korea. The rulers know that no one will ever dare to attack them, because any attack on North Korea would result in a devastating counter-attack on South Korea. The modern,high-tech magnificence of Seoul, the South Korean capital, could be attacked within hours by the North Korean army, and if the nuclear missiles ever become fully functional, the threat will be even more acute. <br /><br />What does this have to do with the USA? Well, we are the number one military force in the world, we have more military bases around the world than anyone else, and in the last several decades we have engaged in more invasions and wars than anyone else. Whoo-hoo! Most Americans almost wet their pants with love of the military, and since 9/11, it has been considered very poor taste, unpatriotic, and maybe even a potential sign of terrorist sympathies to ever EVER question or criticize our wars, our occupations, our bases, the size of our armed forces, our huge expenditures on military matters, and so on and so forth. So we are rather North Korean-like in our devotion to the military and the almost sacrosanct position that military matters occupy in our national psyche. The North Koreans cheer when their missile launches threaten South Korea, and we love to "support the troops" when they invade other nations, no questions asked by the "patriotic" majority. <br /><br />Resemblance #2: Just as the North Koreans show no remorse for the pain or suffering their aggressive acts cause to others, so do we have very hard time ever admitting, let alone apologizing, for death and destruction caused to other people by our military. For both the USA and North Korea, military action is a conscience-free zone of thought. There are of course Americans who oppose and critique our militarism and aggression, but I am referring to the majority, for whom being "strong on defense"(i.e., aggressive and unapologetic) is a key qualification of national political leadership. Note that,with the exception of Ron Paul, all the current Republican candidates for President continually heap scorn on President Obama for being a "weak" and "apologetic" President, despite his continuation of the Bush wars with expansions into Yemen, Libya and Pakistan, with ever-increasing use of drones to make the killing of "bad guys" even easier.<br /><br />Resemblance #3: Like North Korea, we are dedicated to maintaining our huge military at any cost, even if our society is crumbling and resources are badly needed elsewhere. In the last two rounds of budgetary brinkmanship on Capitol Hill, the one thing that has given the Republicans pause in their zombie-like, headlong rush to cut back government programs and services despite the toll that such reckless and random amputations would take on non-wealthy Americans was the possibility that defense spending might also have to be cut. Suddenly the Republicans felt a sense of hesitation about their budget-cutting gospel! It is one thing to cut off unemployment benefits to people who can't find work, withhold food stamps from people on the edge of starving, destroy union contracts that provide a decent living to people who do not live off investments, or cut back funding to roads, bridges, schools or water systems that are disintegrating and collapsing. Things like that the Republicans can do without a moment's hesitation or any apparent remorse. But cut back the military by even one penny? Oh no, that is INCONCEIVABLE! That would be a CATASTROPHE! I suspect that if the current right-wing extremists of the Republican party manage to take over the Senate, the House and the Presidency, we will see a massive devastation of most social services and government programs and at the same time, a massive buildup of the military, all wreathed in a beautiful, red, white and blue patriotic afterglow. And then will come the wars, and more "support the troop" mass hypnotism as we send our young men and women to kill and be killed, all in order to "defend our freedom," to finally return maimed and mad to a country whose decline can only be disguised so long by massive military extravaganzas.<br /><br />So, while we may enjoy snickering and sneering in remembrance of Kim Jong-il and the completely miserable state of the country that he presided over, I see him and the way he ruled North Korea as a frightening foretaste of what America may become if we continue in our blind worship of the military to the exclusion of all other needs and concerns. <br /><br />But hope springs eternal. Maybe in 2012, Americans will decide that they have had enough of war and that is is time, at long last, to direct our energies to non-military matters, like taking care of each other and preserving our precious planet rather than seeking to blame and attack others. However, I am not at all confident that this runaway train can be stopped in time.irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-3155297098225324092011-12-23T03:07:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.906-08:00Counting Down to Christmas...<p>Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year - we'll see you again in 2012! Until then, for the sake of all those people who are spending way too much time wrapping presents this season, here's our official countdown clock until the big day.... </p><br /><br /><div STYLE="text-align: center; margin: 10px auto 10px auto;"><br /><a href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_lw7ok1JOqX1qb5vt3o1_1280.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://s3.amazonaws.com/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_lw7ok1JOqX1qb5vt3o1_1280.gif" height="404" width="400" /></a><br /><form name="clock"><br /><p><INPUT TYPE=button VALUE="How Long Until Christmas, Again?" ONCLICK="Xmascountdown()"> <br /><p><input name="XmascountdownDisplay" size="45" STYLE="text-align: center;"></p><br /><p STYLE="font-size: smaller;">Based upon <a href="http://www.emailsanta.com/JS-XmasCountdownCode.txt" target="_blank">code</a> originally developed by <a href="http://www.emailsanta.com/" target="_blank">EmailSanta</a>. <br /><br>Image credit: <a href="http://blog.fueledbycoffee.com/post/14261303751/for-core77" target="_blank">Fueled by Coffee</a> (HT: <a href="http://www.core77.com/blog/cartoons/coretoon_the_gif_that_keeps_on_gifing_21339.asp" target="_blank">Core77</a>). </p><br /></form><br /></div>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-70961750260975540362011-12-22T12:24:00.000-08:002011-12-22T12:24:31.466-08:00The Strangeness of the American Political Election<div style="text-align: justify;">Am I the only one who finds the American elections for President, well.....weird? A few weeks ago or sometime then, I first tuned into the DNC convention in Denver. "DNC?" even that sounded odd to me. It reminded of me of some type of medical procedure. Okay, it's Democratic National Convention. The first bias I noted was in the political reporting and coverage from the different networks and cable affiliates. I had to check to see if the different "commentators" were actually at the same event.<br />
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If I wanted to get a spin more favorable from the republican side, I stayed on Fox. I tried to be fair and though I didn't connect with the democrat candidates, mostly because there's something sinister that hangs over Hillary and Bill, I would tune into CNN. My God, I wish I wasn't so shallow, but at least Osama is relatively appealing to look at and listen to. Old man McCann, it's hard to think how long he can hold up.<br />
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But anyhow, very little of the "reporting" felt like actual hard news, and the candidates? Such posturing. I couldn't get over how much they have to play to each other. Poor Obama, he was so left out on the porch to appease Hillary's supporters. It's obvious these people don't really like each other. By the time Hillary came on to "strongly" express her unwavering support for Obama's presidency, it felt more like a dry run for her own candidacy. Give her credit, she finally showed up, in a strong and confident address, but for her it was too late. This was all about creating "party unity" but even one of those covering the convention exhumed, Hillary, probably hope's Obama loses, so she can run in 2012. Now, that's somebody I'd want watching my back.</div><a name='more'></a><br />
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I never did see Obama's acceptance speech, but I conceded he can hold up for himself. He's a lawyer after all? It's funny because a lot of political commentators use what we would call sales language to describe the process. "Oh, Obama will finish the deal on Thursday" I'm kind of Glad Obama can be counted on to "close" for himself. Maybe we should be looking for that in a President. Then there is the whole description of what were in the various messages by both parties supporters. Phrases like "red meat" I guess that means substance and also the role of different speakers, well, so far McCain has not been required to be an attack dog,I guess somebody else will "relish" that role.<br />
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The whole playing up on the conventions are quite a spectacle. It's even more of an irony watch the political "experts" dissect both the impact and intentions how what the candidates have said, both through specifics and when they trip up. Larry King had a panel of four women who were racing to interrupt each other and nullify or build up what the candidates meant by what they were saying. Everybody seems to know or seem to know what the American people want. You get the feeling that the whole thing needs to be explained to most Americans. I wonder how many people know what a caucus is, or how the parties elect their nominees. What are delegates anyway? How about a "super delegate?" Now that impressive. Some of the women on Larry King seemed intent on slamming Sarah Palin and insisted "women" would be insulted that just any woman would do.<br />
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Maybe women like Sarah Palin for reasons "they" like her and it's not the same as women who like Hillary for. Everybody seems to think they know the "intelligence" of the American voter. The same voters that stay up and record "reality shows" and watch dancing with the stars. Face it part of who gets elected will be because of popularity. Isn't that why they call it the popular vote? I must admit John McCain looks a lot better with Sarah Palin standing next to him. He's just too colorless to get elected by himself. It's also a little mystifying how effective the Republican Party wants to portray John McCain as a war here, because he was a prisoner of war. How do we know what happened during his time as a captive? Did you know his Father and Grandfather were Admirals? I remember this scene from a popular movie called "The Recruit" that depicted Colin Farrell as breaking under torture. Afterwards when Farrell found out his capture was staged he lamented, yeah but I broke. Al Pacino as his CIA Svengali quipped they (we) all do. How many of us wouldn't rat out in those circumstances.<br />
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All of this played out even weirder when my hotel cable went out and I happened to be watching a Library DVD of the Manchurian candidate. That was eerily similar to some of today's issues. A certain writer friend insists that the whole of the American Elections is already forgone. "It doesn't matter when you own all the ponies in the race" It is interesting noticing the engagement of both "regular people" and the easily obvious controlled and bias media.<br />
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I started taking my own poll, just talking to people about their thoughts. A lady in Sacramento working in a deli offered she didn't trust Obama, referring to some obscure mention about his patriotism. Though she was vague in details and she was in a mostly white suburb. Two women at a real estate convention who were friends gave differing opinions of Governor Palin, one woman who offered she was a Mother liked Palin. The other woman just kind of gave non approving body language. At least on woman "expert" of the Larry King Panel of four women called out that the "other women" might be jealous of Sarah Palin's opportunities or her looks.<br />
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Now that would be unprecedented. It almost seems like the political machinery is not altogether ready for the unusual ness and complexity of a woman like Sarah Palin not only on the political stage but her influence on both men and Woman. I noticed the other day how Cindy McCain who would be the First Lady is not even receiving hardly any notice. Finally I notice her in a pretty revealing outfit with a cleavage portal, getting a little cranked up. Yes, this is getting a little fun.<br />
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It seems like most people vote for who they are going to vote for as President because of their personal preferences. Maybe is somewhat of a sad indication but a lot of people might choose a candidate just for the reasons we all buy different kinds of cars. I'm not that certain that is all bad. Maybe things like intuition and someone a person can relate too are just as important. The whole thing of experience and qualifications are very much central themes of these campaigns. I wonder how some of these candidates would hold up in the real world (yikes!) like trying to get a top corporate job.<br />
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I have heard Google, for examples has like twelve layers of interviews and processes including going before groups who actually present real time scenarios, where you have to demonstrate your competence. Not in the American Presidency though. Then again who is to really blame Obama if he decided NOT to pick Hillary as a running mate? Is this any different than a head of a company choosing someone they have a better chemistry with or somebody that will be willing to be loyal to them or plays a better wingman?<br />
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No, I cannot really see Hillary being comfortable deferring to the big O. She doesn't seem like a good loser. It seemed like years ago, elections seemed, well....more Presidential. It started with seeing Bill C playing sax on Saturday Night Live. Since then, it's been nothing like I remember when John Kennedy was President.<br />
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If we are to believe what the "experts" are telling us, we will see what the candidates are really about in the next remaining days. It seems like more, a war of attrition. Who will hold up? Who will not get tangled up in a mess bigger than their phalanx of image handlers can dig them out from? It's a wonder if the "right" candidate will really make it or will it be really, the one that can survive. I have expected Obama to be a little more skilled with some of the things he's let spill from his mouth. Unguarded moment or subconscious meanings?<br />
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Palin already seems to have already trumped her own candidates star. Meanwhile, we are facing the latest failure and government bail-outs of Wall Street Investment banks. First the housing and Mortgage industry, now this. If these people can't run their own businesses, who can? What about the business of running America? Oh, we're back to that again. I kept hoping, really praying that I would see some evidence of both congress and the senate that we actually have some degree of impartiality in standing up to the insane ruse being put forth about these economic bail-outs.I also wanted to see if McCain or Obama would do something.<br />
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The fact that neither did had me sense their is no real difference in the fundamental buys in the parties are attached to the real power elite that controls the apparent governing of our nation. Somewhere in all of this is the possibility that more and more people will actually ferment in a swelling of intelligence and do something for themselves, we hope the candidates will...Think and act in accordance with a reasonable plan for America. Hopefully the truth about these elections is out there somewhere, amongst all the spins, the disenchanted, the non-believers and the fervent hopefuls.<br />
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Hopeful that the true Spirit of democracy and freedom is instilled in people, not bound up in a big fat wedggie, regardless of the pollsters, media and even the candidates themselves.irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-70233528593037518812011-12-22T12:22:00.001-08:002012-03-08T16:46:01.135-08:00Iraqi Dinar - The Role of Oil, Politics, and Foreign Investment<div style="text-align: justify;">There have been many developments in the Iraqi economy since the 2003. Efforts of the nation's government and foreign aid have focused on the following goal: increasing security and stability in Iraq via legitimate political representation, infrastructure building, and economic growth.<br /><br />Possible domestic capital markets were created with the objective of cutting down their massive pre-war debt. The Paris club was generous enough to forgive 80% of Iraq's debt. Their policies towards growth and their near future economic stability attract investors worldwide.<br /><br />Foreign bank licenses were also issued after many decades to banks such as HSBC, National Bank of Kuwait, Commercial Housing Bank, Iranian National Bank, Bahraini Arab Banking Institute and Standard Chartered bank. Interest rates were further liberalized in the aim to form a vibrant free market economy. The rejuvenated banking system was expected to have a positive effect on the value of Dinar. Besides, the Central Bank of Iraq became an independent agency, without influences from political parties of Iraq.</div><a name='more'></a><br /><br />The Iraqi Dinar was being traded at 3.35 per US dollar before the sanction of United Nations and at 0.33 per US dollar before the Iraq war. The Iraqi Dinar was affected mostly by the major combat operations of the nation and had declined to an all time low value.<br /><br />After the combat operations, however, the government succeeded in bringing up the currency value by 25% and currently the value of Dinar is 1400 against the USD, an enormous increase from 3500 against the USD during the US invasion. Even Germany and Kuwait underwent a similar devaluation postwar but both recovered.<br /><br />The recovery of Iraqi Dinar is astonishing and the Iraqi government's efforts towards global market integration will still spur the value of the currency. Iraq after recovery is also expected to benefit from its abundant natural resources.irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-13486123606703357862011-12-22T12:21:00.001-08:002011-12-22T12:21:37.783-08:00Political Cartoonists and Their Views<div style="text-align: justify;">As a proper dictionary definition, a cartoonist is a person who specializes in drawing cartoons. A political cartoonist is a person who creates caricatures on a daily basis as a commentary on a political news event. Like every writer, the cartoonist is trying to make a point. They see themselves as a visual journalists rather than artists. They think analytically and share their opinions and views. Political cartoonists are different from ordinary cartoonists. They are "visual anarchists" of the satirized political scene.<br />
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In order to really understand a political cartoon one needs to have some background information on the political subject in question. Cartoonists use a series of techniques to get their message across. Caricature is the first and most important technique. It often exaggerates an individual's characteristics to make them more easily recognizable. Analogy is another much encountered technique. Cartoonists often use words and images to better explain a complex situation.<br />
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People should look critically at a political cartoon for a better interpretation of the actions. They have to first possess the necessary political background knowledge, understand the tackled subject, identify the techniques used by the cartoonist and try to interpret and understand the cartoon.</div><a name='more'></a><br />
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Political cartoonists are also considered to be opinion-formers. Their opinion helps and the more vicious the cartoonist, the more satirical the cartoon. Everything for them is wrong within the nowadays political system and their drawings help make things right. They all try to define political figures not to eliminate them from the political life or to offend them in any way.<br />
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Cartoon Bank is a permanent online political cartoons resource. Political cartoons and books can be found gathered together in an interesting selection of collections. Here one can always find political cartoons and cartoon prints and covers at affordable prices.irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-8502967973215176532011-12-22T03:40:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.906-08:00Should You Wait to Take Social Security?<p>Does it pay to delay taking Social Security benefits? </p><br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pSCNV9s9r2E/TvH_P46GDCI/AAAAAAAAEyw/BCE08ErBew0/s1600/idamay5.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 191px; height: 200px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pSCNV9s9r2E/TvH_P46GDCI/AAAAAAAAEyw/BCE08ErBew0/s200/idamay5.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5688608452784819234" /></a><br /><br /><p>Let's say you're considering one of three options: taking early retirement at Age 62, retiring at the traditional Age 65, or really holding off on retiring until you've reached Age 70. Which choice might be better for you? </p><br /><br /><p>The question matters because people who wait longer before drawing Social Security benefits can draw larger benefits than those who don't wait. </p><br /><br /><p>To find the answer, we've tapped Social Security's estimate of the <a href="http://www.ssa.gov/oact/COLA/examplemax.html" target="_blank">maximum possible Social Security benefits</a> that would be paid for individuals choosing to begin receiving payments in the first month after they've reached each of these ages in January 2012. </p><br /><br /><p>We then projected the accumulated total amount of benefits each individual would receive all the way out to Age 100. </p><br /><br /><p>But since most Americans won't live quite that long, we also projected <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2008/07/how-much-longer-can-you-expect-to-live.html" target="_blank">how much longer a typical American can expect to live</a> once they've reached the age at which they begin receiving Social Security benefits. </p><br /><br /><p>We've presented our results in the following chart, where we've used a solid line to indicate the portion of benefits that would be accumulated based upon a typical American's likely remaining life expectancy, and a dashed line to cover the period from that age all the way out to Age 100. </p><br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fhBzLEM_5HM/TvH-EbSGeoI/AAAAAAAAEyk/bluuDwFJbPU/s1600/does-it-pay-to-delay-taking-social-security-benefits-2012.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 435px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fhBzLEM_5HM/TvH-EbSGeoI/AAAAAAAAEyk/bluuDwFJbPU/s1600/does-it-pay-to-delay-taking-social-security-benefits-2012.png" border="0" alt="Does It Pay to Delay Taking Social Security Benefits?" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5688607156342258306" /></a> <br /><p>What we find is that based upon the typical life expectancy for most Americans, it does indeed pay to wait longer to draw Social Security benefits after becoming eligible. </p><br /><br /><p>For example, an individual who waits until the traditional Age 65 to begin receiving Social Security benefits will accumulate more money from the program than an individual who begins drawing benefits at Age 62 by the time both have reached Age 77. Since most Americans who reach either age can expect to live into their 80s, they would do better to wait than to take early retirement. </p><br /><br /><p>Likewise, by the time an individual reaches Age 82, they will have accumulated more benefits from Social Security by having waited to start receiving them at Age 70 than they will have by beginning to take them at Age 65. </p><br /><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6Al4pTWAPoE/TvIAH6uo-LI/AAAAAAAAEy8/qB0jDdlz9ZA/s1600/clip_image002_004.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 144px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6Al4pTWAPoE/TvIAH6uo-LI/AAAAAAAAEy8/qB0jDdlz9ZA/s200/clip_image002_004.jpg" border="0" alt="Granny's Wild Card - Source: Racing.nd.gov" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5688609415346321586" /></a><br /><br /><p>There are two big wild cards in all this however. First is the major unknown of how long you will actually live - if you knew that, then you would know exactly which option might be better for your situation. </p><br /><br /><p>That's also complicated by whether or not you have a spouse. In that case, your Social Security benefits would continue to be paid to them in the form of survivor's benefits throughout the rest of their lives, which matters because they might live long beyond your years. That factor would argue in favor of waiting. </p><br /><br /><p>The second big wild card however is whether you have another source of income that can carry you from Age 62 through Age 70. Whether that's from regular retirement income that you set aside throughout your working years or from a job, both of which might be at the mercy of the economy, you might find it necessary to begin drawing benefits long before you would otherwise have chosen to do so in an ideal world. </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-59787615373180263722011-12-21T03:38:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.906-08:00How Much Does It Cost to Own an ETF?<p>If you're an investor looking to possibly put your money into an <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp#axzz1h6Sg50wK" target="_blank">Exchange Traded Fund</a> (ETF), how much can you expect that will that cost you? </p><br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GQHzCpL0KsI/TvDjfJtUzZI/AAAAAAAAEyY/lVvj2Qz_npY/s1600/etf-investing-6.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 139px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GQHzCpL0KsI/TvDjfJtUzZI/AAAAAAAAEyY/lVvj2Qz_npY/s200/etf-investing-6.jpg" border="0" alt="Shopping at the ETF Cafe - Source: Digerati Life" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5688296453690412434" /></a><br /><br /><p>ETFs are a lot like <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mutualfund.asp#axzz1h6Sg50wK" target="_blank">mutual funds</a>, in that they are made up of a number of individual stock or bond holdings and have operating expenses that will be charged against your account, but they're not exactly. Unlike mutual funds, which are only allowed to change hands at the end of a business day, you can actively trade an ETF - placing market orders to buy and sell at any time when the market is open, just like the shares of stock or bonds you might own. </p><br /><br /><p>Combined, those characteristics make an ETF something of a hybrid between mutual funds and regular stocks. Which means that figuring out how much it costs you to own an ETF is a little more involved than looking at the fund's <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/operating-expense-ratio.asp" target="_blank">Operating Expense Ratio</a>. </p><br /><br /><p>If you're shopping for an ETF, and you're looking to minimize your costs as a way to help maximize your return on your investment, you'll also need to consider the funds <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bid-askspread.asp#axzz1h6Sg50wK" target="_blank">Bid-Ask Spread</a>, the value of any trading commission you might have to pay, as well as how long you plan to keep your money in the ETF and also how much money you'll keep in the ETF. </p><br /><br /><p>Fortunately, our newest tool is here to do the job for you! Based on math presented by Michael Iachini in the <a href="http://oninvesting.texterity.com/oninvesting/2011winter/" target="_blank">Winter 2011 edition</a> of Charles Schwab's On Investing magazine (the link will work once the print edition is published online), our latest tool can help you find out how much it owning an ETF will really cost you! </p><br /><br /><p>Just enter the relevant data below, and we'll do the rest! </p><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-align: center;"><br /><FORM NAME="Tue Dec 20 2011 12:32:57 GMT-0700 (US Mountain Standard Time)"><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 STYLE="border: 1px solid #333333; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #3B3A4A;"><br /> <TH COLSPAN=2 STYLE="text-align: center; vertical-align: center; font-size: larger; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 4px;">ETF and Investment Information</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #768597;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Input Data</TH><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Values</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">ETF Operating Expense Ratio [%]</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="OER0" VALUE="0.10" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #ECF1F4;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">ETF Bid-Ask Spread [%]</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="BAS1" VALUE="0.15" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Commission per Trade [$]</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="COM2" VALUE="8.95" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #ECF1F4;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Time You Plan to Hold the ETF [years]</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="T3" VALUE="0.5" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Amount You Plan to Invest in the ETF [$]</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="P4" VALUE="10000" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /></TABLE><br /><BR><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 STYLE="border: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /> <TR><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: center; vertical-align: center;"><br /> <INPUT TYPE=button VALUE="Calculate" ONCLICK="etfOwnershipCost(this.form)"><br /> <INPUT TYPE=reset></TH><br /> </TH><br /> </TR><br /></TABLE><br /><BR><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 STYLE="border: 1px solid #333333; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #3A3B4A;"><br /> <TH COLSPAN=2 STYLE="text-align: center; vertical-align: center; font-size: larger; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 4px;">Annual Cost of Owning an ETF</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #857697;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Calculated Results</TH><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Values</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Your Annual Cost of Ownership [%]</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="PAC" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #F1ECF4;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Your Annual Cost of Ownership [$]</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="AC" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /></TABLE><br /></FORM><br /></p><br /><br /><p>Using the default values in the tool, we find that the approximate annual ownership cost for investing $10,000 for half a year in an ETF with an Operating Expense Ratio of 0.10%, a Bid-Ask Spread of 0.15% and a per-trade commission of $8.95 is 0.76%, or $75.80. </p><br /><br /><p>Different ETFs and different brokers however will have very different numbers. Using our tool will help give you a good way to compare the relative costs of owning those ETFs when it matters most: before you choose to invest in them! </p><br /><br /><p>Image Credit: <a href="http://www.thedigeratilife.com/blog/etf-investing-exchange-traded-funds/" target="_blank">The Digerati Life</a> </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-63226754923036001612011-12-20T03:03:00.000-08:002012-03-27T12:30:39.523-07:00Building Your Groupon Discount Promotion<p><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5g_zNqh3iFo/Tu-LFHnWjPI/AAAAAAAAEyM/92oI7T_kbsA/s1600/cupcakes-source-in-gov.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 200px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5g_zNqh3iFo/Tu-LFHnWjPI/AAAAAAAAEyM/92oI7T_kbsA/s200/cupcakes-source-in-gov.jpg" border="0" alt="Cupcakes! Source: in.gov" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5687917774451936498" /></a>If you run a business and are looking at running a marketing campaign offering discounts on your products or services through social media marketing sites like <a href="http://www.groupon.com/" target="_blank">Groupon</a> or <a href="http://www.livingsocial.com/" target="_blank">Living Social</a>, what kind of discounts can you really afford to offer? </p><br /><br /><p>That question comes up because of a recent story from the United Kingdom, where Woodley baker Rachel Brown was forced to make 102,000 cupcakes to satisfy a torrent of customers who took advantage of the discount she had offered via <a href="http://www.groupon.com/" target="_blank">Groupon</a>, losing $20,000 in the process. Mashable's Stan Schroeder <a href="http://mashable.com/2011/11/23/groupon-cupcakes/" target="_blank">reports</a>: </p><br /><br /><blockquote STYLE="border-color: #940022; background-color: #E5E1D9; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 8px; border-style: dotted dotted dotted solid; padding: 0em 1em;"><br /><p>Group discounts can be a nice thing for both the seller and the customers, but you have to know your limits. A UK baker learned that the hard way, when she was forced to bake 102,000 cupcakes, after offering a 75% cupcake discount on Groupon. </p><br /><br /><p>The discount obviously sounded too good to Grouponers, 8,500 of whom signed up to buy 12 cupcakes for £6.50 ($10), down from the standard £26 ($40) price. Rachel Brown, who operates the Need a Cake bakery in Woodley (near Reading, UK), had to hire extra workers and try to bake the cupcakes to satisfy the swarming customers. </p><br /><br /><p>"Without doubt, it was my worst ever business decision. We had thousands of orders pouring in that really we hadn’t expected to have. A much larger company would have difficulty coping," said Brown, who lost up to £12,500 ($20,000) on the deal. </p><br /></blockquote><br /><br /><p>There's a lot that went wrong for our cupcake-baking heroine, but thanks to the folks at TheDealMix, who <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-the-math-formula-for-structuring-a-groupon-deal-that-doesnt-lose-money-2011-12?op=1" target="_blank">developed the formulas</a>, we can now present a tool using simplified math that can help any business owner set up a deal for discounts to avoid the pitfalls into which Rachel Brown's bakery fell. </p><br /><br /><p>Just answer the following questions as they apply for your business - our tool will do the rest to help ensure that your business can handle the demand from your deal while still running in the black! </p><br /><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-align: center;"><br /><FORM NAME="Mon Dec 19 2011 11:59:40 GMT-0700 (US Mountain Standard Time)"><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 STYLE="border: 1px solid #333333; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #3A3B4A;"><br /> <TH COLSPAN=2 STYLE="text-align: center; vertical-align: center; font-size: larger; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 4px;">Data About Your Business' Promotion</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #857697;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Input Data</TH><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Values</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">How much does your average customer typically spend on the goods or services you'll be featuring in your promotion?</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="ACS0" VALUE="40.00" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #F1ECF4;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">What is your cost for the goods and services you'll be promoting?</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="COGS1" VALUE="12.50" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">What amount, above your Cost of Goods Sold, will you add to the offer price for your promotion?</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="MINPROFIT2" VALUE="2.50" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #F1ECF4;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">What percentage of your business' capacity do you use when not running a promotion?</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="X3" VALUE="60" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">How many monthly transactions do you have on average when not running a promotion?</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="Y4" VALUE="1000" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #F1ECF4;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">How many months would you like to run your <a href="http://www.event-factory.ch/">promotion</a>?</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="MONTHS5" VALUE="3" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /></TABLE><br /><BR><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 STYLE="border: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /> <TR><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: center; vertical-align: center;"><br /> <INPUT TYPE=button VALUE="Calculate" ONCLICK="grouponPromotion(this.form)"><br /> <INPUT TYPE=reset></TH><br /> </TH><br /> </TR><br /></TABLE><br /><BR><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 STYLE="border: 1px solid #333333; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #3B4A3A;"><br /> <TH COLSPAN=2 STYLE="text-align: center; vertical-align: center; font-size: larger; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 4px;">Your Promotion</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #769785;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Calculated Results</TH><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Values</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Your Promotion (aka "The Deal")</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=24 NAME="DEAL" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #ECF4F1;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: center; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Total Number of Deals to Offer</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="CAP" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: center;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /></TABLE><br /></FORM><br /></p><br /><br /><p>Our tool's results are designed to ensure that your business can afford to support the discount promotion you're thinking about running in two ways. First, by adding a positive amount to your Cost of Goods or Services Sold, you'll avoid the situation where you might discount your promoted item too greatly. </p><br /><br /><p>Second, by placing a limit on the number of deals that will be offered through your promotion, you'll largely avoid having to go to extraordinary means to satisfy customer demand should your promotion prove to be extremely popular. </p><br /><br /><p>And now, you shouldn't have to worry about whatever the equivalent of losing $20,000 to bake 102,000 cupcakes is for your business! </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-29643293101454264442011-12-19T03:11:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.907-08:00S&P 500: In the Zone!<p>Nobody can predict where stock prices will go next, can they? Especially given the volatility of stock prices, especially in today's market, where the market can swing by more than 3% in any given day, right? </p><br /><br /><p><a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/01/inside-impossible-prediction-for-s-500.html" target="_blank">It's just not possible</a>, is it? </p><br /><br /><p>To really find out, we ran a two-year long experiment, from April 2009 through April 2011, to see if we could forecast the average value of stock prices for a month at the end of the previous month. Here were our <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/04/two-years-of-s-500-forecasting.html" target="_blank">final results</a>: </p><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HKg8HPo94XE/TZnPG5XwmuI/AAAAAAAAD-8/puuQwxfdvEk/s1600/SP500-AMIV-Actual-vs-Forecast-April-2009-April-2011.png"><img style="display: block; margin:10px auto 10px auto;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 411px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HKg8HPo94XE/TZnPG5XwmuI/AAAAAAAAD-8/puuQwxfdvEk/s1600/SP500-AMIV-Actual-vs-Forecast-April-2009-April-2011.png" border="0" alt="S&P 500 Average Monthly Index Value, April 2009 to April 2011" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5591728129743821538" /></a> <br /><br /><p>As you can see, we offered a split final forecast option for April 2011. Here's what we believed would happen instead:<br /><br /><blockquote STYLE="border-color: #940022; background-color: #E5E1D9; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 8px; border-style: dotted dotted dotted solid; padding: 0em 1em;"><br /><p>What we believe is likely is that stock prices will track upward from the average level of 1304 they recorded in March 2011 toward the 1393-1429 level our primary method would forecast as the noise currently in the market subsides. </p><br /></blockquote><br /><br /><p>And that's what happened. In April 2011, stock prices did indeed track upward, rising to an average level of 1331 for the month, with the S&P closing the month at 1363.61. </p> <br /><br /><p>We took the next several months off from offering public forecasts of where the S&P 500 would head next, but by 26 September 2011, we couldn't resist any more, and posted the following chart, which presents a <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/09/s-500-noisily-flailing-about.html" target="_blank">graphical prediction</a> that happens to cover the period through the end of 2011: </p><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0rYc9bwkmYU/Tn4yWvwKkcI/AAAAAAAAEco/_BTWGvyghCc/s1600/SP500-amiv-vs-tydps-26-sept-2011.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 411px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0rYc9bwkmYU/Tn4yWvwKkcI/AAAAAAAAEco/_BTWGvyghCc/s1600/SP500-amiv-vs-tydps-26-sept-2011.png" border="0" alt="S&P 500 Average Monthly Index Value vs Trailing Year Dividends per Share, December 1991 through 23 September 2011" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5656013548380918210" /></a><br /><br /><p>And here's what the updated chart looks like, through the end of 16 December 2011: </p><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oBu4kXix_Ps/Tu4vDdeiTCI/AAAAAAAAEyA/o1UB0Pz9jFk/s1600/SP500-AMIV-vs-TYDPS-Dec-1991-16-Dec-2011.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 410px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oBu4kXix_Ps/Tu4vDdeiTCI/AAAAAAAAEyA/o1UB0Pz9jFk/s1600/SP500-AMIV-vs-TYDPS-Dec-1991-16-Dec-2011.png" border="0" alt="S&P 500 Average Monthly Index Value vs Trailing Year Dividends per Share, December 1991 through 16 December 2011" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5687535115914333218" /></a><br /><br /><p>What can we say? We're still in the zone! And that concludes, for real this time, our public experiment in forecasting the future for the S&P 500! </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-60851539770107041332011-12-17T14:51:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.907-08:00Innovation Beyond TechnologyI have grown weary of people repeating the apparently widespread belief that "innovation" is the solution to all our problems. I don't deny that the difficult problems facing modern-day societies require new ideas and approaches. What bothers me is that when people talk about innovation, they seem to mainly be talking about TECHNOLOGICAL innovation. It's as if the Beatles song "All You Need is Love" has been re-engineered ("re-purposed," to use the latest innovative jargon sweeping the mass vocabulary) as "All You Need is Tech," available now on Ipad, pod and Kindle. Now, again, I am not opposed to technology. This blog is not written on a blackboard nor traced in the dirt with a stick nor conveyed by carrier pigeon. I am happy to embrace technology that is useful. <br /><br />What concerns me is the assumption that technological innovation is all that matters in today's world, which overlooks the fact that technological change can be for good or for ill,and that technology often comes with all kinds of hidden costs that we only recognize belatedly. Technology used with wisdom and a sincere regard for human needs and human welfare can indeed be very beneficial, but technology used thoughtlessly without regard for its consequences or only for the purpose of amassing profits can be incredibly harmful and destructive, at the individual level, at the social level, and at the planetary level. Consider nuclear energy. Splitting the atom was an enormous scientific breakthrough, but we now live in fear of nuclear war and meltdown catastrophes such as happened in Fukushima last spring. How quickly today's innovation can turn into tomorrow's nightmare, based on how human beings choose to apply these new techniques and devices. If you are reading this blog, I assume that you are a person with some kind of spiritual awareness and also some degree of social concern. I like to imagine that you are not the kind of person who takes at face value the assertion that "all you need is tech." <br /><br />There are other kinds of innovation just as important. There can be social and economic innovations, changes in how we live, work and distribute money and other resources, with incredible benefits for humanity. The creation of the labor union was one such innovation, a rearrangement of the work situation for the benefit of laborers. From the viewpoint of nineteenth century industrialists, labor unions were a huge pain in the ass that got in the way of the efficient use of up-to-date technology to maximize profits. The creation of public education and public libraries were other such innovations, based on an innovative vision of public good and welfare as opposed to private ownership and profit. Giving women the right to vote was another social innovation that helped move us toward a more gender-equal world in which women could claim equal citizenship alongside men. The Civil Rights movement in America helped to clear away the shameful racial prejudices and policies that all the technological innovation of the preceding century had done nothing to address.<br /><br />Much has been made of the role played by new high-tech communication methods such as computers, cell phones, Facebook and Twitter in the revolutionary uprisings across the world in recent years, from Iran in 2009 to Egypt in spring of 2011 and Occupy Wall Street in recent months. Unfortunately, this line of thinking seems to take a serious wrong turn toward overly simplistic technological determinism in suggesting that such uprisings were only possible due to such "social media," and that without Facebook, the people who rose up in revolt would have been inert and helpless. Facebook, Twitter and other high-tech paraphernalia were no doubt useful tools of communication, but there had to first be bold and serious political ideas constructed in response to widespread grievances, or all the Twittering in the world might have just involved a sharing of celebrity gossip or sports scores. Let's not forget that "social media" do not create society, and that is first and foremost human beings, human thoughts and feelings, and the human capacity for desiring justice and social change that lead to uprisings and revolutions, not the latest technological fad.<br /><br />Yes, we need innovation. We badly need to change the way our economy distributes wealth and resources, or we will continue to see technological innovation used to destroy employment for the many to increase the wealth of the few. We need to be careful about how information and media are owned and managed, or we will find that our supposedly infinite multiverse of digital information and electronic media will be in the hands of a small number of companies like Apple, Amazon and Google, and we will have no recourse when they decide to increase prices, censor unwelcome viewpoints, or limit access to types of information that are either politically inconvenient or unprofitable. I would feel much better having a strong public entity like the Library of Congress as the reservoir of information and media, because it would not then be subject to the whims of investors and profiteers. But then again, I believe in the public sphere in a time when most people seem to believe that all you need is private property and that kind, benevolent corporations are more trustworthy than the evil, intrusive government.<br /><br />As a college professor, I feel that the world of higher education that did so much to nurture my generation and open doors of awareness and opportunity for millions of Americans is under increasing threat from high-tech entrepreneurs and Wall Street investors who see education as their next target for corporate takeover and privatization. Share in private companies offering educational services like charter schools are booming. It seems obvious to me that such companies would love to put all public education out of business, most of all we pesky teachers, so that education can be made into a commodity that will be bought, sold, traded, downsized to squeeze our maximum profit and delivered by low cost, increasingly less highly trained labor, providing the same benefit to American society that we have seen come from the wise, innovative management of American manufacturing and real estate over the last thirty years. <br /><br />And then there is the environment. A few years ago there was widespread concern about global warming and environmental degradation and serious interest in new, less polluting, innovative energy technologies like solar power. However, the old guard struck back, and how! With a massive public relations campaign to discredit so-called "environmental extremists," old-school, carbon-based energy companies, including such good friends to the earth as EXXON, BP and Koch Industries, aided and abetted by the talk radio, television stations, Twitter feeds and other media outlets owned and operated by Murdoch, FOX and others of like mind and purpose, have been able to shift a substantial chunk of American public opinion back in favor of relying on oil, gas and coal, scorning the potential of still-developing alternative energy technologies, the environment be damned! One failed solar power company, Solyndra, to which the Obama administration had provided financial assistance, is now seen as proof positive that solar power is a silly waste of time, an inept leftist plot based on shoddy science and even worse economics. Meanwhile, large swathes of the United States are being subjected to the rapacious greed of the old guard energy companies, armed with the "innovative" new technology of "fracking" (hydrofracturing), which poses a horrible risk to water supplies for large regions of the country.<br /><br />When it comes to the environment and energy, we need "innovation" that goes beyond technology. We need the innovation of courage of conviction along with the innovation of caring about the earth. We need the innovation of standing up and saying, sorry, profit is not everything. Profit is not worth degrading the earth. You cannot breath profit and you cannot drink quarterly dividends. Or maybe the super-wealthy few can, the financial super-elite; surely they can afford to develop and purchase new "innovative" technologies to provide them with clean air and water in their "innovative" gated communities, with "innovative" high-tech security systems to prevent lesser mortals from scaling the walls in search of oxygen, non-toxic food and healthy drinking water. <br /><br />The greatest innovation is never technology. It is the capacity of human beings to stand up,join together and fight for a better world, a better world for all, not just the privileged few. It is wisdom to see a value in the world that goes beyond dollars and euros and corporate profits. Now, you might argue that this is not really "innovation," this is ancient tradition, this is spirituality or religion. Well, perhaps in our technology-bedazzled time, this is exactly the kind of "innovation" that we need, one that can help us to pause from our headlong rush forward and reflect on and learn from the past,and consider what is truly important, not only for today and our bank balance right now, but for tomorrow and for the generations to come. We need to look for values and practices that may not have made Steve Jobs or Bill Gates billionaires, but which have sustained the earth and the human spirit and which can still speak to us today, if we have ears to hear, even if that means disengaging from our electronic devices for a few moments now and then.irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-73864503426982044372011-12-17T11:54:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.907-08:00Smorgasbord Saturday<ul><li>"<a href="http://myoccupylaarrest.blogspot.com/">My Occupy LA Arrest</a>"/Patrick Meighan, <i>Family Guy</i></li><li>"<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/us/redress-weighed-for-forced-sterilizations-in-north-carolina.html?_r=1&hp">Thousands Sterilized, North Carolina Weighs Restitution</a>"/Kim Severson, <i>New York Times</i></li><li>"<a href="http://www.idahostatesman.com/2011/12/10/1911155/supreme-court-will-decide-bujak.html">Idaho Supreme Court will decide Bujak documents case</a>"/Kristin Rodine, <i>Idaho Statesman</i></li><li>"<a href="http://www.npr.org/2011/12/14/143580858/npr-musics-100-favorite-songs-of-2011?sc=tw&cc=share">NPR Music's 100 Favorite Songs of 2011</a>"/Music Staff, NPR</li><li>"<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/15/world/middleeast/united-states-marines-haditha-interviews-found-in-iraq-junkyard.html?pagewanted=all?src=tp">Accounts of a Massacre, Saved From Junkyard Flames</a>"/Michael S. Schmidt, <i>New York Times</i></li><li>"<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/17/opinion/collins-an-early-holiday-hangover.html?ref=gailcollins">An Early Holiday Hangover</a>"/Gail Collins, <i>New York Times</i></li><li>"<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/has-gingrich-ever-heard-an-idea-he-didnt-like/2011/12/15/gIQA1E7ywO_story.html">Has Gingrich ever heard an idea he didn't like?</a>"/Eugene Robinson, <i>Washington Post</i></li><li>"<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111217&content_id=26190506&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb">Extended labor peace a credit to Selig</a>"/Richard Justice, MLB.com</li></ul><div><br /></div>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-59742667893783485452011-12-16T03:32:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.908-08:00The Invisible Hand App<p>If you use Google's <a href="https://www.google.com/chrome?&brand=CHMB&utm_campaign=en&utm_source=en-ha-na-us-sk&utm_medium=ha" target="_blank">Chrome web browser</a>, there's a relatively new app that can make shopping a lot more economical: <a href="https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/lghjfnfolmcikomdjmoiemllfnlmmoko" target="_blank">InvisibleHand</a>. </p><br /><br /><p>When you're reviewing a commercial web site when shopping for a product, such as airline tickets, rental cars, or even dog food, InvisibleHand will let you know if you can buy the product more cheaply at other sources and link to them. We snapped the screen shot below to show what the discreet prompt looks like when it finds a lower price, which appears at the top of the browser window: </p><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YiT3bKf37XI/TujPqiEhR6I/AAAAAAAAExw/Os02c_QcjRU/s1600/invisible-hand-shopping-dog-food-amazon-better-price-at-walmart.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 426px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YiT3bKf37XI/TujPqiEhR6I/AAAAAAAAExw/Os02c_QcjRU/s1600/invisible-hand-shopping-dog-food-amazon-better-price-at-walmart.png" border="0" alt="Shopping for Dog Food at Amazon.com, InvisibleHand Finds Lower Price at Walmart.com" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5686022859162470306" /></a><br /><br /><p>We've only been test driving it for a little while, but our initial impression is that the app is pretty cool! The app is free and versions are also available for the Firefox, Safari and Internet Explorer web browsers from InvisibleHand's <a href="http://www.getinvisiblehand.com/" target="_blank">web site</a>. </p><br /><br /><h3>Elsewhere on the Web</h3><br /><br /><p>Carolyn Nicander Mohr offers a positive <a href="http://www.wonderoftech.com/2011/11/invisible-hand-for-economical-online-shopping/" target="_blank">review</a> of the InvisibleHand app. </p><br /><br /><p>C|net's Rafe Needleman <a href="http://www.cnet.com/8301-31361_1-20004265-254.html" target="_blank">reconsiders</a> his initial positive review for the app based upon privacy issues related to cross-site data leakage, where his search for a product on one site was unknowingly communicated to Amazon's site. </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-56522540502690907072011-12-15T03:43:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.908-08:00Revisiting the U.S. Housing Bubble<p>Once upon a time, we developed a <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2010/02/better-method-for-detecting-housing.html" target="_blank">better method</a> for detecting housing bubbles. Today, we're going back to the data mines to do some refinement and to see where things stand today! </p><br /><br /><p>Our first chart shows the relationship between <a href="http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf" target="_blank">median new house prices</a> in the United States and <a href="http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/2010/H05_2010.xls" target="_blank">median household income</a> for the years from 1967 through 2010. </p><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Kgd1d8aWLrE/TufHJdD3jzI/AAAAAAAAExM/LiTiLgzDozs/s1600/median-new-house-prices-vs-median-household-income-us-1967-2010.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 435px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Kgd1d8aWLrE/TufHJdD3jzI/AAAAAAAAExM/LiTiLgzDozs/s1600/median-new-house-prices-vs-median-household-income-us-1967-2010.png" border="0" alt="Median New House Prices vs Median Household Income in the United States, 1967-2010" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5685732019812142898" /></a> <br /><br /><p>Here, we've revised our earlier look to better define the major trends evident in the data. Here, we see one major trend running from 1970 through 1986, then a second trend running from 1987 through 1999. After 1999, we see the housing bubble beginning its inflation phase as the relationship between median new house prices and median household income became decoupled, running through 2007. Since then, the U.S. housing bubble has been in its deflation phase, which appears to still be ongoing, as the relationship between the median prices of new houses and median household income remains decoupled. </p><br /><br /><p>One important thing to note is the shift in the trend that occurred after 1986. We believe this shift was triggered by the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which eliminated a number of debt-related tax deductions, but which left the <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/09/itemized-tax-deductions-of-rich-and.html" target="_blank">long-standing</a> mortgage interest deduction in place, even increasing the amount of the deduction. </p><br /><br /><p>The changes brought about by the Tax Reform Act of 1986 had two main effects. First, it incentivized home ownership by enhancing the tax benefits associated with owning property and having a mortgage. Second, in eliminating the favorable treatment of other debt interest, it made the home mortgage the primary channel by which people would choose to accumulate debt thanks to the interest on that debt being tax advantaged. </p><br /><br /><p>These changes however are not the cause of the U.S. housing bubble, as there is no correlation between the shift in trend and the beginning of the bubble in 2000. More interestingly though, we see that both trends would project nearly the same median new home price given the current level of the U.S. median household income. </p><br /><br /><p>Looking at the more recent trend that was defined in the period from 1987 through 1999, we can see that the relative affordability of a median new home in 2010 is still well elevated above where it would have been during that period. The following chart shows the percentage deviation between the 1987-1999 trend and actual median new home prices from 1987 through 2010, which gives a sense of how overpriced the median new home has been since 1999 thanks to the U.S. housing bubble: </p><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-x0lBa-10GGw/TufHV0ak0BI/AAAAAAAAExY/QdGV1F_2O2w/s1600/how-overpriced-are-new-homes-in-us-1987-2010.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 435px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-x0lBa-10GGw/TufHV0ak0BI/AAAAAAAAExY/QdGV1F_2O2w/s1600/how-overpriced-are-new-homes-in-us-1987-2010.png" border="0" alt="Percentage Difference Between Median New House Prices and 1987-1999 Trend, 1987 through 2010" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5685732232239829010" /></a> <br /><br /><p>Here, we see that the relative affordability of the median new home with respect to where it typically was from 1987 through 1999 peaked in 2005, with a percentage deviation of 25.7%. Since then, the median price of a new home has fallen, bottoming in 2009 at a level 11.9% over where the linear trend that ran from 1987 through 1999 would place it, before bouncing back up to be 14.4% higher than the level of the projected trend in 2010. </p><br /><br /><p>What's interesting to us is that it appears that we stumbled directly into something that looks very much like the <a href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=XLS&assetID=1245214507706" target="_blank">Case-Shiller house price index</a>!</p><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-j0yAeGuGaCg/TufHnL72tYI/AAAAAAAAExk/7zPv_j3pVIk/s1600/case-shiller-home-price-index-jan-1987-sept-2011.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 435px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-j0yAeGuGaCg/TufHnL72tYI/AAAAAAAAExk/7zPv_j3pVIk/s1600/case-shiller-home-price-index-jan-1987-sept-2011.png" border="0" alt="Case Shiller Home Price Index, January 1987-September 2011" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5685732530611205506" /></a> <br /><br /><p>Here, looking at both the 10-city and 20-city composite indices, we find that our representation above closely follows the pattern traced out by the Case-Shiller 20-city composite data - at least with respect to the linear trend we created in the chart for the period from 1987 through 1999. </p><br /><br /><p>But unlike the Case-Shiller data, because our method correlates house prices with household income data, it will better communicate the relative affordability of homes in the U.S. over time! </p><br /><br /><p>Since the Case-Shiller data has been updated more recently than the Census data, it appears that house prices in the U.S. have resumed falling in 2011. And even though those falling prices are making homes <a href="http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/12/housing-affordability-is-now-at-record.html" target="_blank">more affordable</a> today, they would have to fall by roughly another 12-14% before they would be in the same ballpark for affordability that they were in the years from 1987 through 1999.</p><br /><br /><p>Or as the projected trend works out to be from our first chart, the same level of affordability that they were for Americans in the years from 1970 through 1986 as well. </p><br /><br /><h3>Data Sources</h3><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Census. <a href="http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf" target="_blank">Median and Average Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in United States</a>. http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf. Accessed 13 December 2011. </p><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">U.S. Census. Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements. Table H-5. Race and Hispanic Origin of Householder--Households by Median and Mean Income: 1967 to 2010. [<a href="http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/2010/H05_2010.xls" target="_blank">Excel spreadsheet</a>]. Accessed 13 December 2011. </p><br /><br /><p STYLE="text-indent: -3em; padding-left: 3em;">Standard and Poor. Case Shiller Seasonally Adjusted Home Price Index Levels, September 2011. [<a href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=XLS&assetID=1245214507706" target="_blank">Excel spreadsheet</a>]. Accessed 13 December 2011. </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-37268764814478880862011-12-14T03:56:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.908-08:00How Many Calories Are You Really Eating?<p>How many calories does your body need to maintain its current weight? Or rather, if we were to take your current weight level and assume that you're consuming enough Calories to maintain it, how many Calories is that per day? </p><br /><br /><span STYLE="float: right; padding: 4px; margin: 4px; width: 400px;"><br /><FORM NAME="Tue Dec 13 2011 07:36:05 GMT-0700 (US Mountain Standard Time)"><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 STYLE="border: 1px solid #333333; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #4A3A3B;"><br /> <TH COLSPAN=2 STYLE="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; font-size: larger; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 4px;">Your Personal Data</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #978576;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Input Data</TH><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Values</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Age [years]</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="A0" VALUE="35" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #F4F1EC;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Weight [lb]</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="W1" VALUE="170" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Height [in]</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="H2" VALUE="68" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #F4F1EC;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Gender</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><br /> <SELECT NAME="G3"><br /> <OPTION VALUE="1" SELECTED>Male<br /> <OPTION VALUE="0">Female<br /> </SELECT><br /> </TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #4A3A3B;"><br /> <TH COLSPAN=2 STYLE="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; font-size: larger; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 4px;">Your Daily Activity Level</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TD COLSPAN=2 STYLE="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;"><br /> <SELECT NAME="V4"><br /> <OPTION VALUE="1.200">Sedentary [Little to No Exercise]<br /> <OPTION VALUE="1.375" SELECTED>Light Activity [Light Exercise/Sports 1-3 days/week]<br /> <OPTION VALUE="1.550">Moderate Activity [Moderate Exercise/Sports 3-5 days/week]<br /> <OPTION VALUE="1.725">Very Active [Hard Exercise/Sports 6-7 days/week]<br /> <OPTION VALUE="1.900">Extra Active [Very Hard Exercise/Sports and Physical Job]<br /> </SELECT><br /> </TD><br /> </TR><br /></TABLE><br /><BR><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 STYLE="border: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /> <TR><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;"><br /> <INPUT TYPE=button VALUE="Calculate" ONCLICK="caloriesPerDay(this.form)"><br /> <INPUT TYPE=reset></TH><br /> </TH><br /> </TR><br /></TABLE><br /><BR><br /><TABLE CELLSPACING=0 STYLE="border: 1px solid #333333; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 100%;"><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #663333;"><br /> <TH COLSPAN=2 STYLE="text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; font-size: larger; font-weight: bold; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 4px;">Approximate Daily Calorie Requirements</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #CC9999;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Calculated Results</TH><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Values</TH><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFFFFF;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Basal "Resting" Metabolic Rate [Calories]</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="BMR" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /> <TR STYLE="background: #FFCCCC;"><br /> <TH STYLE="text-align: left; vertical-align: middle; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px;">Estimated Total Calories Consumed per Day</TH><br /> <TD STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; padding: 4px;"><INPUT SIZE=15 NAME="DAY" STYLE="text-align: right; vertical-align: middle;"></TD><br /> </TR><br /></TABLE><br /></FORM><br /></span><br /><br /><p>Math is a wonderful thing and yes, we can use it to work out approximately how many Calories you're eating every day! Our tool below uses the math developed by M.D. Mifflin, S.T. St. Jeor, L.A. Hill, B.J. Scott, S.A. Daugherty and Y.O. Koh in their 1990 paper "<cite><a href="http://www.ajcn.org/content/51/2/241.abstract" target="_blank">A new predictive equation for resting energy expenditure in healthy individuals</a></cite>" to estimate your basal metabolic rate, or rather, the number of Calories your body would consume when it's "resting", which we then mashed with the old <a href="http://www.bmi-calculator.net/bmr-calculator/harris-benedict-equation/" target="_blank">Harris-Benedict approximations</a> for taking your daily level of physical activity into account. </p><br /><br /><p>All you need to do is to enter your age, gender, weight and your approximate level of daily physical activity into our tool below. Unless you're a true athlete, with lots of lean muscle mass that burns even more Calories, or perhaps have a <a href="http://www.vivo.colostate.edu/hbooks/pathphys/endocrine/thyroid/physio.html" target="_blank">thyroid condition</a> that directly affects your metabolic rate, you can expect the results to be pretty close to the actual ballpark in which your body burns Calories to maintain your current weight! </p><br /><br /><p>Best of all, if you're getting set to do something about your weight or fitness level, you now have some idea of how many Calories you're really consuming every day! </p><br /><br /><p>And really, that might be the most surprising result you'll find out from our tool! </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8133607238994214171.post-33757452995518799332011-12-13T04:21:00.000-08:002012-01-09T12:23:43.908-08:00Snapshots of the Expected Future Dividends for the S&P 500<p>A quick story in two snapshots. First, the expected future trailing year dividends for the S&P 500 through the fourth quarter of 2012: </p><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qnOfg-hdBNc/Tuc_22-J_KI/AAAAAAAAEw0/sF1Dz3St_fk/s1600/expected-future-trailing-year-dividends-per-share-SP500-through-13-December-2011.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 435px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qnOfg-hdBNc/Tuc_22-J_KI/AAAAAAAAEw0/sF1Dz3St_fk/s1600/expected-future-trailing-year-dividends-per-share-SP500-through-13-December-2011.png" border="0" alt="Expected Future Trailing Year Dividends per Share for the S&P 500, as of 13 December 2011" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5685583266280242338" /></a><br /><br /><p>Second, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_tax#United_States" target="_blank">tax rates that apply to dividend income</a> from 2003 through 2012, and the expected tax rates that will apply for 2013 onward, given current law in the U.S.: </p><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7TrS3l43M9E/TudAs8YUBxI/AAAAAAAAExA/rTTp2GdCXNA/s1600/US-Dividend-Tax-Rates-Source-Wikipedia.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 284px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7TrS3l43M9E/TudAs8YUBxI/AAAAAAAAExA/rTTp2GdCXNA/s1600/US-Dividend-Tax-Rates-Source-Wikipedia.png" border="0" alt="U.S. Dividend Tax Rates, 2003-2012, with Current Law Rates Shown for 2013 Onward" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5685584195445065490" /></a><br /><br /><p>What effect do you think those much higher tax rates will have upon stock prices beginning in 2013? Especially since the long-term capital gains tax rate will be <a href="http://www.backtaxeshelp.com/tax-blog/filing-taxes/capital-gains-rates.html">so much less</a>? Here's <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2010/12/what-caused-dot-com-bubble-to-begin-and.html" target="_blank">what history says</a>, but remember, it ends badly, except perhaps for the <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7388130n" target="_blank">insiders</a>.... </p><br /><br /><p>Speaking of which, here's <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/even-congresss-insider-trading-reform-is-a-scam/">what they're up to</a> today! </p>irbob sevenfoldhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16598063097512935019noreply@blogger.com